economy

Airlangga Forecasts Economy Will Grow By 5.05 Percent In The Third Quarter Of 2024

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto has estimated that Indonesia's economic growth for the third quarter of 2024 will be approximately 5.05 percent, mirroring the growth seen in the second quarter of the same year. It's worth mentioning that the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is set to announce the country's economic growth figures (Gross Domestic Product/GDP) for the third quarter later today, Tuesday (November 4, 2024).

"The anticipated economic growth for Indonesia in the third quarter of 2024 aligns with that of the previous quarter," he shared during a meeting at his Jakarta office on Monday (November 4, 2024). However, when asked if this quarter's growth might surpass 5 percent, Airlangga chose not to specify a figure.

Josua Pardede, Chief Economist at Bank Permata, predicts that the economic growth for the third quarter will be slightly lower than the previous quarter, estimating it at 5.02 percent year-on-year (yoy). "We expect the economic growth for the third quarter of 2024 to be around 5.02 percent yoy, a decrease from 5.05 percent yoy in the prior quarter," he noted when speaking with Kompas.com on Monday.

During this time, economic growth continues to be bolstered by household consumption, which is projected to rise by 5.03 percent yoy. This is an improvement over the 4.93 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2024, although it falls short of the 5.05 percent yoy seen in the third quarter of 2023. The uptick in household consumption is also reflected in various indicators, such as:

• Retail sales at the end of the third quarter of 2024 saw a year-on-year rise of 4.7 percent. This impressive growth outpaces the 2.72 percent increase recorded in the second quarter of 2024 and the 1.48 percent growth from the third quarter of 2023.

• The Consumer Confidence Index at the close of the third quarter of 2024 shows a favorable trend, indicating an estimated year-on-year increase of 1.5 percent. This is a notable improvement compared to the previous quarter, which saw a year-on-year drop of 2.98 percent.

Strong consumption is bolstered by a trend of decreasing supply-side inflation, especially in areas with fluctuating prices and those regulated by the government. At the same time, core inflation is anticipated to rise, projected to hit 2.09 percent year-on-year by the conclusion of the third quarter of 2024, he noted.

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Tag: Airlangga Hartarto BPS Central Statistics Agency Retail Sales