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2025 State Budget Target Revised: 5% Economic Growth-US Dollar Rp 16,800

The government has set the latest outlook for the 2025 State Budget (APBN). The changes have been approved by the DPR RI Budget Agency (Banggar). The approval was given by the DPR RI Banggar in a working meeting led by Chairman Said Abdullah with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo at the DPR RI Building, Jakarta, Thursday (3/7/2025). In the latest outlook, Sri Mulyani lowered the projection for Indonesia's economic growth in 2025 to within the range of 4.7-5%. This projection is lower than the previous assumption at 5.2%. Regarding the rupiah exchange rate, Sri Mulyani estimates that it will be weaker by the end of the year at Rp16,300-16,800 per US dollar and the SBN yield is still set quite wide at 7% or near the lower limit of 6.8%. The APBN posture until the end of 2025 has also changed, namely the realization of budget financing is estimated to reach Rp662 trillion, higher than the previous projection of Rp616.2 trillion. This is because the deficit is estimated to widen to 2.78% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), higher than the initial target of only 2.53% of GDP. "We will continue to carefully monitor the 2025 State Budget. We see that the implementation of the 2025 State Budget is very challenging because the environment is changing very dynamically and also because there are new priorities from the president that are implemented to improve economic performance and improve our country's defense and resilience," said Sri Mulyani. 

Latest Basic Macroeconomic Assumptions for 2025: 

- Economic growth 4.7-5%, previously 5.2% 

- Inflation 2.2-2.6%, previously 2.5% 

- 10-year SUN interest rate 6.8-7.3%, previously 7% 

- Rupiah exchange rate IDR 16,300 - IDR 16,800/US$, previously IDR 16,000/US$ 

- Indonesian crude oil price US$ 68-82/barrel, previously US$ 82/barrel 

- Oil lifting 593-597 thousand barrels per day, previously 606 thousand barrels per day 

- Natural gas lifting 976-980 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, previously 1.05 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. 

Latest Outlook for the 2025 State Budget: 

A. State revenues of IDR 2,865.5 trillion, previously IDR 3,005.1 trillion 

- Tax revenues of IDR 2,387.3 trillion, previously IDR 2,490.9 trillion 

- Non-Tax State Revenues (PNBP) of IDR 477.2 trillion, previously IDR 513.6 trillion 

B. State spending of IDR 3,527.5 trillion, previously IDR 3,621.3 trillion 

- Central government spending of IDR 2,663.4 trillion, previously IDR 2,701.4 trillion 

- Transfers to regions of IDR 864.1 trillion, previously IDR 919.9 trillion 

C. Primary balance deficit of IDR 109.9 trillion, previously IDR 63.3 trillion 

D. Deficit of IDR 662 trillion or 2.78%, previously IDR 616.2 trillion or 2.53% 

E. Budget financing Rp 662 trillion, previously Rp 616.2 trillion 

Tag: APBN DPR RI Banggar Sri Mulyani Indrawati