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US Attack On Iran Threatens Indonesia's Economic Stability

The involvement of the United States in launching air strikes on three of Iran's main nuclear facilities has not only triggered a major escalation in the Middle East conflict, but also has the potential to disrupt global economic stability, including Indonesia. As a country that relies on energy imports, Indonesia needs to anticipate the impact of the war. 

As reported by Kompas.id, US President Donald Trump announced the attack on Saturday (21/6/2025) evening Washington time or Sunday morning WIB. Trump claimed that the attack successfully hit three Iranian nuclear facilities, namely Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. 

Quoting the Reuters page, President Donald Trump's move to deploy B-2 stealth bombers and launch attacks on three of Iran's main nuclear sites marked the most serious escalation in the armed conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as expanding the conflict to a global dimension. 

In fact, Iran has repeatedly stated that its nuclear program is peaceful and within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). 

Contacted separately, senior economist at Paramadina University, Wijayanto Samirin, said that the US attack on Iran did not have a significant direct impact on Indonesian trade. However, the impact that needs to be watched out for and has an impact on Indonesia is in the financial and energy sectors. 

Indonesia needs to anticipate the worst possibility if the war continues to escalate, causing an increase in world oil and natural gas prices. The Iran-Israel conflict has caused Brent oil prices to fluctuate in the range of 73 dollars to 92 dollars per barrel, with analysts warning of a potential price increase of 15-20 percent in 2025. 

"If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, the world's energy supply will be disrupted, prices will rise, the world economy and Indonesia will slow down. In addition, global risks increase, capital flows will be disrupted, interest rates will rise, and the rupiah has the potential to be under pressure," said Wijayanto, Sunday (6/22/2025). 

However, according to him, it is unlikely that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz because it will also have an impact on Asian countries, including China, which is a major energy importer from the Middle East. 

The Strait of Hormuz is the main gateway to the Persian Gulf. This strait is a strategic route for the world's major oil and gas producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, and Kuwait, in the global oil and gas trade. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that in 2023, an average of 20 million barrels of crude oil per day were transported through the Strait of Hormuz. This volume is equivalent to almost 30 percent of the total world oil trade. Around 70 percent of that volume is sent to Asian countries, such as China, India, and Japan, which are the largest buyers. 

Confirmed further, Andalas University economist Syafruddin Karimi said that US involvement in the war between Israel and Iran was a serious alarm for Indonesia. From this war situation, Indonesia needs to immediately determine its stance. 

The US attack on Iran has not only shaken the Middle East, but also shaken the economic and geopolitical foundations of developing countries, including Indonesia. 

Tag: Donald Trump Middle East Conflict US Attack