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Regarding The Plan To Revise Indonesia's Economic Growth Target, Here's What Airlangga Said

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, emphasized that the government has no plans to revise the macro assumptions for Indonesia's economic growth in 2025. 

As is known, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that national economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 reached 4.87% year on year (yoy). Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy contracted by 0.98%. 

Meanwhile, the macro assumptions in the 2025 State Budget Law state that the economic growth target for this year is 5.2%. 

Airlangga emphasized that it is still too early to change the macro assumptions even though various global uncertainties are shaking the economy. One of them is the reciprocal tariff by the President of the United States, Donald Trump. 

"It's only been 5 months, so we'll see how it develops even though world trade is hit by a tariff shock," Airlangga told reporters in Jakarta, Thursday (5/15/2025). 

Several international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest forecast contained in the April 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEF), estimate that Indonesia's economic growth will only reach 4.7% in 2025-2026. 

The projection revised down the previous economic growth estimate in the January 2025 edition of the WEF. At that time, the IMF predicted that the Indonesian economy could still grow by 5.1% this year and 2026. 

Nevertheless, Airlangga is still optimistic that economic growth is still within the range. 

"In terms of several rating agencies, our economic growth is still within the range," he said. 

For the record, the DPR and the government have agreed on a 2025 economic growth target of 5.2% and inflation is estimated at 2.5%. This figure is recorded as the same as the basic assumption in the 2025 Draft State Budget. 

Meanwhile, the rupiah exchange rate was agreed at IDR 16,000/USD and the 10-year SBN interest rate was 7.0%. This figure is slightly different from the basic assumption of the 2025 Draft State Budget which targets the rupiah exchange rate in the range of IDR 16,100/USD and the 10-year SBN interest rate of 7.1%. 

The two parties also agreed that the development targets are still the same as the 2025 Draft State Budget. These targets include an open unemployment rate of 4.5-5.0%, a poverty rate of 7.0-8.0%, an extreme poverty rate of 0%, a Gini Ratio of 0.379-0.382, and a Human Capital Index of 0.56. 

Meanwhile, the Development Indicator in the form of the Farmer Exchange Rate is targeted at 115-120 and the Fisherman Exchange Rate of 105-108. These two indicators also did not change from the 2025 RAPBN. However, in the conclusion of the meeting, several factions in Commission XI provided several notes. The PDI-Perjuangan faction proposed a rupiah exchange rate of Rp15,900/USD and a 10-year SBN interest rate of 6.9%. On the other hand, the PKB faction proposed that the Farmer Exchange Rate be in the range of 120-125. 

Tag: Airlangga Hartarto BPS Indonesia's Economic Growth